According to Andre Dragosch, geopolitics has accelerated a breakdown in the monetary order, shifting demand from sovereign bonds toward hard assets like gold and setting conditions favorable for Bitcoin BTC as a hedge. Dragosch cites the freezing of Russian foreign assets by G7 nations as the catalyst for a decoupling by major developing countries toward hard assets, reflected in the divergence between US real yields and gold prices, implying persistent bid for non sovereign collateral. Dragosch argues that a declining US trade deficit reduces foreign inflows into US capital markets, pressuring US Treasuries first, and raising the risk of a domestic central bank backstopping bond markets at the expense of the currency, a setup that typically supports scarce assets. Dragosch highlights Japan as a live example of rising yields alongside currency depreciation, a pattern associated with capital flight and eventual policy intervention that can further debase the currency, reinforcing the hard asset bid. Dragosch maintains that while gold and silver have already re-rated, Bitcoin is the ultimate trade due to finite supply, lack of counterparty risk, and apolitical design, though investor familiarity may delay adoption relative to gold, leaving a potential opportunity for staged allocation once other hedges are extended.

According to @KobeissiLetter, Japanese insurers sold about 5.2 billion dollars of Japanese government bonds with maturities of ten years or longer in December, the largest monthly sale since data began in 2004. According to @KobeissiLetter, this was the fifth consecutive month of net selling by insurers, the longest streak on record. According to @KobeissiLetter, the update highlights a record-length selling trend focused on long duration JGBs.

According to @Andre_Dragosch, the bull market resumes only if one of three macro triggers occurs: a sharp stock market sell-off that forces the Federal Reserve to restart quantitative easing, a sovereign bond market crash driven by Japan-related stress, or both at once, indicating a regime shift that would favor risk re-entry for traders. Source: @Andre_Dragosch, X, Nov 20, 2025. According to @Andre_Dragosch, traders should closely monitor US equity drawdowns, any signals of Fed balance sheet expansion or QE restart, and signs of sovereign bond dislocation linked to Japan as timing cues for re-risking strategies. Source: @Andre_Dragosch, X, Nov 20, 2025.